In early March, VTsIOM published data according to which, at the end of February, only 32.1% of Russians named Vladimir Putin in response to an open question about which politician they trust. Trust in Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stood at 4.5% — the lowest result since the war with Ukraine began. Shortly after the publication, mobile internet outages occurred in Moscow and St Petersburg. Political analyst Ekaterina Schulmann compared such measures to Mikhail Gorbachev's anti-alcohol campaign: the tougher the restrictions, the more inventive the ways around them.
Rating assessments and the Kremlin's reaction
On Radio Svoboda, Stanislav Belkovsky called the figure of 32.1% a signal of latent discontent within the system. According to him, VTsIOM subsequently published new data, no longer from a spontaneous poll, showing Putin's trust level at 77%. Belkovsky argued that for the presidential administration ratings matter as a reflection of their work, but Putin himself does not react to the numbers, since he perceives the rating as the result of the administration's activity. "He reacts to his own internal ideas about the stability of the system," the analyst said.
Belkovsky also stated that in a totalitarian state public opinion does not matter, and control is ensured by the sacred figure of the leader and the repressive apparatus. In his view, Putin acts on political intuition, which has not failed him for 26 years.
Technical glitch with video and digital control
Commenting on a draft video of a March 8 greeting that appeared online, in which Putin coughs and asks for the take to be re-recorded, Belkovsky called it a technical glitch rather than an image blow. "If there is a choice between conspiracy theories and chaos, always choose chaos," he quoted one of his teachers as saying.
Speaking about internet restrictions, Belkovsky suggested that the Kremlin is moving toward a "white list" system, under which only certain resources will remain accessible. He believes this is a long-term model of digital control, and even if the war with Ukraine ends, the authorities will maintain the threat to justify the blockade. In his assessment, Russians will experience stress from the loss of familiar social networks, including Telegram.
The war and Putin's strategy
Answering a question about the front's influence on ratings, Belkovsky said people would like a speedy end to the war, but Putin has done everything to ensure the war is not perceived as a people's war. He argued that the partial mobilization of 2022 was a forced episode, and now the Kremlin is waging a war of attrition, attacking Ukrainian infrastructure. "For any popular discontent there is the GULAG and the repressive machine," the analyst said.
Belkovsky disagreed with the view that war is a comfortable state for Putin. "Putin is more a man of anabiosis. For him the ideal model of life is not war but staying in a bunker," he said. According to him, Putin has two goals: to establish control over power in Kyiv and to reach an agreement with the US on security guarantees. He is not yet close to the first goal, but, by Belkovsky's assessment, he is closer to the second than ever, especially under President Trump.
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