In Mikhail Sokolov's program, the crisis of power in the two countries was discussed. The host recalled: two months ago the Rada unsuccessfully tried to dismiss the government, now Yatsenyuk has submitted his resignation himself, and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc has nominated Volodymyr Groysman for the post of head of government. In Russia, Sokolov noted, "no matter what the government does, no matter how the standard of living falls," no one demands the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev.
Belkovsky objected: demands are heard from the Communist Party and the Just Russia party, who intend to go to the State Duma elections with this slogan. According to him, all parties except United Russia will demand the prime minister's resignation, but this is inconvenient for United Russia members, since Medvedev heads the party.
"We have complete stability, coffin-like"
Answering the question of why Russian propaganda rejoices at Yatsenyuk's resignation, Belkovsky explained it this way: any fact of instability in Ukraine is pleasing to the Kremlin, since it allows them to say: "see, you'll go out to Maidan, and it will be like theirs. We have complete stability, coffin-like."
He formulated Vladimir Putin's basic idea as follows: Ukraine will collapse and everything will fall apart anyway. "This is a failed state" — that's what Putin thinks, not I, so that these statements won't later be attributed to me," the analyst emphasized. According to him, Putin considers Ukraine unviable because it is stitched together from incompatible political-geographical entities and does not have such reserves of oil and gas as Russia.
At the same time, Belkovsky agreed that Putin is right about one thing: instead of reforms, Ukrainian elites have spent the last two years engaging in corruption, counting on the West to save them from Russia anyway. This calculation, in his opinion, is not entirely correct: someday Ukraine will tire the West. He called the Dutch referendum a small but alarming signal.
Results of Yatsenyuk's government
Belkovsky called the organization of a real war the cabinet's main success: the army was pulled together and an anti-terrorist operation was provided, which would have led to the defeat of the DPR and LPR if not for the intervention of Russian armed forces. He does not consider the reduction of gas dependence on Russia a government success: it is explained by falling gas prices and a colossal decline in Ukrainian industry.
In his assessment, the declared reforms were not carried out and systemic corruption was not eliminated. He named Mykola Martynenko as a symbol of shadow schemes, and also pointed to the cabinet's inability to wrest Ukrnafta from the hands of Ihor Kolomoisky. He characterized Yatsenyuk as "Schrödinger's prime minister," who never stayed anywhere longer than a year or a year and a half.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko urged looking to the future and spoke of the need to consolidate the political class. He mentioned Germany's proposal for a new "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine with a fund of one hundred billion euros if reforms begin.
About Groysman, Belkovsky said that the results of his work as mayor of Vinnytsia are impressive, but his reform potential is unknown. "We know for certain that he is Petro Poroshenko's man," he concluded, adding that in fact the president will lead the government.
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