Political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky, who took part in the 2004 Orange Revolution as a political strategist, gave an interview to Alesya Batsman. The piece was published in Bulvar Gordona on July 9, 2019. Belkovsky spoke about Ukraine's new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, Kremlin policy, sanctions, and the position of the Russian elites.
Ukraine and the Kremlin
According to Belkovsky, Moscow supported Petro Poroshenko, relying on his administrative resources, while Zelensky remains an unknown quantity to the Kremlin. The analyst argued that the Kremlin is mistaken in considering Zelensky a man of Ihor Kolomoisky: "Ihor Valeriyovych, of course, supports Zelensky, but he supports anyone who is not Poroshenko." Belkovsky also stated that Zelensky will make decisions himself.
Belkovsky expressed the opinion that Russia will not give up Crimea and that the conflict in Donbas will not be stopped in the coming years. He said that Putin is not a strategist but a tactician, and his main task is "to troll the United States of America." According to Belkovsky, Putin is satisfied with the status quo, and there will be no large-scale aggression against Ukraine in the near future.
Elites and successor
Responding to a question about sanctions, Belkovsky said: "Life has become worse, life has become more fun." He claimed that Putin is in a state of transition "from Eros to Thanatos" and wants to take revenge on the elites for not having had time to live. According to Belkovsky, the elites are dissatisfied, and a palace coup is possible; Putin himself understands this and therefore changes the composition of his guard.
Belkovsky called Medvedev the official successor, whose "public, demonstrative humiliation only emphasizes his status as successor." He did not rule out that over time Medvedev might transform, like Khrushchev after Stalin. Among possible successors, he mentioned the governor of Tula Region, Alexey Dyumin.
Belarus and Kazakhstan
Speaking about Belarus, Belkovsky stated that there will be no absorption, and talk of it is blackmail by Alexander Lukashenko. According to him, Lukashenko will not give up power because he came to it "from the street." Belkovsky believes that the issue is a struggle for property, not independence.
On Nursultan Nazarbayev's departure, Belkovsky said that Nazarbayev wants to make Kazakhstan part of the Euro-Atlantic world and reorient the country toward the "Silk Road." He called the appointed president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a puppet of Nazarbayev, and linked the election of Dariga Nazarbayeva as Senate speaker to a possible transfer of power in 2020.
Commenting on Robert Mueller's investigation, Belkovsky noted that the commission did not find a direct dependence of Donald Trump on Russia but did not deny interference. He also said that relations between Trump and Putin are currently absent.
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