Politics

Belkovsky Assesses Threat of Offensive on Kyiv

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On June 5, 2021, the Ukrainian publication Glavred (Editor-in-Chief) published an article in which Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky expressed his opinion on the likelihood of a full-scale Russian offensive against Ukraine. In an interview with Apostrophe, he argued that the Kremlin does not plan to attack Kyiv but seeks to maintain tension in post-Soviet countries. The publication appeared amid reports that Russian troops had completed exercises near Ukraine's borders and in occupied Crimea.

In an interview with Apostrophe, political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky said that, in his opinion, an offensive on Kyiv is not part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans. "I believe Putin does not need an offensive on Kyiv right now, because he will never go where he does not have 100 percent support," Belkovsky said. He also called the 'Malorossiya' (Little Russia) project a bluff.

According to Belkovsky, the Kremlin's policy is aimed at creating "hotspots" in the countries of the former USSR. "Putin's position is, first, to create a split between the United States and European countries… On the other hand, the Kremlin will try to maintain constant tension in the countries of the post-Soviet space in order to act as a moderator in relations with these countries in negotiations with the United States," he added.

These assessments were voiced in June 2021, when Russia announced the completion of a snap inspection of its troops and the return of units to their permanent deployment points. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting in occupied Crimea that "all set goals have been achieved." Earlier, under the guise of exercises, Russia had pulled dozens of battalion tactical groups and military equipment to Ukraine's borders and into Crimea. The Pentagon expressed concern over the escalation of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak said that the situation is under control and that Ukrainian troops are ready to respond to any escalation both along the contact line and along the entire Ukrainian-Russian border.

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Mathieu Blanchard

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International Correspondent

Photograph: Иллюстрация Maralles, создана с помощью ИИ