On the program "Adolf-Adolf" on the "Khodorkovsky LIVE" channel, political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky discussed why, in his opinion, Vladimir Putin is against general mobilization, why he flew to Tehran, and what the real goals of the "special operation" are. He also spoke separately about the future of Russian space.
On the goals of the "special operation" and mobilization
Belkovsky claimed that Kremlin propagandists had explained the ultimate goal of the "special military operation Z" as establishing control over 40–45 percent of Ukraine's territory within 2–2.5 months—that is, according to him, by October-November 2022. According to Belkovsky's assessment, at that time Russia was "retreating" from 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, and he considered the achievement of the stated goals unlikely within the specified timeframe.
He referred to former NATO commander General James Stavridis's statement that the "non-war" would last another 4–6 months, after which it would turn into a frozen conflict. According to Belkovsky, this would de facto mean a territorial partition of Ukraine along the Korean scenario of the 1950s.
Speaking about mobilization, the analyst presented a discussion of the "theory of permanent special operation," which he linked to the conversion of Trotsky's theory of permanent revolution: the special operation has a beginning but no end, and one cannot stop, otherwise it will be impossible to achieve results.
On personnel changes
Belkovsky commented on personnel decisions: according to him, Denis Manturov became deputy prime minister overseeing the defense industry, Dmitry Rogozin "faded into oblivion," and Yuri Borisov moved to Roscosmos. He did not draw strategic conclusions from these moves, noting that they have little effect on Russia's desire for self-isolation. At the same time, he claimed that in Vladimir Putin's circle there was a struggle among clans for financial flows related to import substitution, and that in this struggle "the clan of Sergei Viktorovich Chemezov won."
According to Belkovsky, Manturov became deputy prime minister "essentially for import substitution," and the Kovalchuk group, which, according to his claim, tried to carry out an "apparatus revolution," failed to succeed this time.
On space
Belkovsky said that with Rogozin's departure, the tasks of exploring the Moon and Mars and demilitarizing space would remain "in the realm of Rogozin's mythology," and space would be "maximally grounded" and focused on solving earthly problems. He claimed that competition with the US in space would cease due to its unproductiveness, and space tourism would be developed by private corporations, primarily of American origin.
In his opinion, in such a situation, "the fairly honest and effective bureaucrat Borisov is quite acceptable," and Rogozin "may well be thrown into some new sector of the front."
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